Modelado estoc´astico de esclusas de navegaci´oninterior: un marco de Monte Carlo para laevaluaci´on de la capacidad y el bloqueo de convoyes
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.66104/1s6ncp14Palabras clave:
transporte fluvial, simulaci´on de Monte Carlo, modelado estoc´astico, capacidad de las esclusas, v´ıa fluvial Tietˆe-Paran´aResumen
Las esclusas son elementos de infraestructura cr´ıticos en los sistemas de
navegaci´on interior, ya que regulan el movimiento de las embarcaciones e
influyen directamente en el flujo del corredor. La variabilidad operativa durante
los procedimientos de esclusaje puede afectar significativamente el tiempo de
tr´ansito de los convoyes, el consumo de energ´ıa y la capacidad efectiva de la
esclusa.
Este estudio desarrolla un marco de modelado estoc´astico para las
operaciones de esclusas interiores basado en la simulaci´on de Monte Carlo.
El proceso de esclusaje se descompone en etapas operativas elementales, que
incluyen maniobras, amarre, operaciones de compuertas, procesos hidr´aulicos
y reconfiguraci´on de convoyes. El modelo se aplica a la esclusa de Bariri en
la v´ıa fluvial Tietˆe-Paran´a, Brasil, donde los convoyes est´andar BP2×2 deben
dividirse temporalmente en dos unidades BP1×2 debido a las limitaciones de
ancho de la c´amara.
Los resultados de la simulaci´on muestran que el tiempo total de esclusaje
oscila aproximadamente entre 6 y 7 horas, dependiendo de las condiciones
operativas, y que la capacidad efectiva anual de la esclusa puede variar entre
un 15 % y un 17 % en los escenarios analizados. El an´alisis de sensibilidad
identifica el tiempo de amarre como el factor operativo dominante que controla
la variabilidad del tiempo de esclusaje. Adem´as, las diferencias entre los
escenarios m´as y menos eficientes corresponden a aproximadamente 120 L
de combustible por esclusaje, lo que podr´ıa representar un ahorro anual de
alrededor de 3.6 × 105 L de combustible y casi 960 t de CO2 en condiciones
operativas t´ıpicas.
El marco propuesto demuestra c´omo la variabilidad operativa se propaga
desde los procedimientos locales de esclusaje hasta indicadores a nivel de
sistema, como la fiabilidad, el consumo de energ´ıa, las emisiones y el
rendimiento de la infraestructura. La metodolog´ıa es transferible a otros sistemas de v´ıas navegables interiores y respalda la planificaci´on operativa y
la evaluaci´on de la capacidad basadas en evidencia.
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Derechos de autor 2026 ANTONIO EDUARDO ASSIS AMORIM, Líria Baptista de Rezende, Suzana De Almeida Prado Pohl Sanzovo, Orlando Fontes Lima Júnior, Janaina Antonino Pinto, João Felipe Rampazzo Venzi
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